Israel Medical Association Journal

Background: Syndromic surveillance systems have been developed for early detection of bioterrorist attacks, but few validation studies exist for these systems and their efficacy has been questioned.

Objectives: To assess the capabilities of a syndromic surveillance system based on community clinics in conjunction with the WSARE[1] algorithm in identifying early signals of a localized unusual influenza outbreak.

Methods: This retrospective study used data on a documented influenza B outbreak in an elementary school in central Israel. The WSARE algorithm for anomalous pattern detection was applied to individual records of daily patient visits to clinics of one of the four health management organizations in the country.

Results: Two successive significant anomalies were detected in the HMO’s[2] data set that could signal the influenza outbreak. If data were available for analysis in real time, the first anomaly could be detected on day 3 of the outbreak, 1 day after the school principal reported the outbreak to the public health authorities.

Conclusions: Early detection is difficult in this type of fast-developing institutionalized outbreak. However, the information derived from WSARE could help define the outbreak in terms of time, place and the population at risk.

Background: Necrotizing enterocolitis is a common progressive gastrointestinal disease affecting more than 5% of very low birth weight infants and associated with a high mortality rate.

Objectives: To determine whether excessive weight gain in preterm infants is an early sign of NEC[1].

Methods: Seventeen preterm infants with perforated NEC were identified and matched with 17 control subjects for birth weight and gestational age. The postnatal age (days) at diagnosis of NEC was identified, and weight changes as well as clinical and laboratory data were recorded and compared for 7 days prior through 7 days post-diagnosis.

Results: A significant difference in weight gain was noticed between D-1 and D 0. The NEC and control groups gained 5.1% and 1.2%, respectively (P = 0.002). None of the sick infants lost weight on days -1 to D 0.

Conclusions: Excessive weight gain was observed in premature infants who subsequently developed NEC. Daily evaluation of weight changes should be considered part of a strategy for early identification of infants at risk for developing NEC. Future studies are needed to confirm this finding in a prospective manner and to investigate its pathogenesis.

Objectives: To study the necessity of bone marrow examination for the diagnosis and clinical course of MGUS[1].

Methods: We retrospectively screened the medical records of all patients in whom monoclonal protein was found in the serum during 2001–2002 in the medical laboratories of Sapir Medical Center. Asymptomatic patients who had serum monoclonal immunoglobulin G < 3.0 g/dl or IgA[2] < 2.0 g/dl or IgM < 1.0 g/dl without anemia, renal failure, hypercalcemia or any bone lesions on skeletal survey were eligible. Full records of patients who were evaluated in the hematology clinic were available (group 1). The remaining patients were followed by their family physicians; thus we had access only to their electronic files including laboratory results and new diagnoses (group 2). Demographic and clinical parameters as well as clinical course were evaluated.

Results: Both groups (57 and 255 patients, respectively) had similar demographic, laboratory and clinical characteristics. Bone marrow examination was performed in 30 of 57 patients (group 1): 16 were normal, 8 had an excess of normal plasma cells, and 6 had excess of pathologic plasma cells. However, only in two of the latter six could a diagnosis of multiple myeloma be established. All group 1 patients were followed for 22 ± 11 months and only two developed overt multiple myeloma. During the same period, 6 of 255 patients (group 2) were diagnosed as multiple myeloma and 3 as MGUS in other hospitals. The rest had a stable course with no change in their laboratory values.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that bone marrow examination should not be performed routinely in patients who fulfill strict clinical and laboratory criteria of MGUS.

Objectives: To estimate the influence of phlebotomies on large artery (C1) and small artery compliance (C2) in PV patients by using non-invasive methods.

Methods: Short-term hemodynamic effects of phlebotomy were studied by pulse wave analysis using the HDI-Pulse Wave CR2000 (Minneapolis, MN, USA) before and immediately after venesection (300–500 ml of blood). We repeated the evaluation after 1 month to measure the long-term effects.

Results: Seventeen PV patients were included in the study and 47 measurements of arterial compliance were performed: 37 for short-term effects and 10 for long-term effects. The mean large artery compliance (C1) before phlebotomy was 12.0 ml/mmHg x 10 (range 4.5–28.6), and 12.6 ml/mmHg x 10 (range 5.2–20.1) immediately after phlebotomy (NS). The mean small artery compliance (C2) before and immediately after phlebotomy were 4.4 mg/mmHg x 10 (range 1.2–14.3) and 5.5 mg/mmHg x 10 (range 1.2–15.6) respectively (delta C2–1.1, P < 0.001). No difference in these parameters could be demonstrated in the long-term arm.

Conclusions: Phlebotomy immediately improves arterial compliance in small vessels of PV patients, but this effect is short lived.

Objectives: To determine whether this policy is still applicable. 

Methods: We performed prospective sampling and follow-up of women admitted for labor and delivery between February 2002 and July 2002. Vaginal and rectal cultures were obtained before the first pelvic examination. GBS isolation was performed using selective broth medium, and identified by latex agglutination and serotyping. Demographic data were collected by means of a standardized questionnaire. Data on the newborns were collected throughout 2002.

Results: Of the 629 sampled women, 86 had a positive culture and a carrier rate of 13.7%. A borderline significantly higher carriage rate was observed among mothers of North American origin (21% vs. 13.1%, P = 0.048), and a higher attack rate in their infants (3.8/1000 compared with 0.5/1000 live births in our general maternal population, P = 0.002). Eight newborns had early-onset neonatal GBS sepsis (a rate of 0.8/1000 live births), but none of them benefited from intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis.

Conclusions: An increased neonatal disease rate was observed in a population with a higher colonization rate than previously seen. In lieu of the higher carrier rates, we now recommend routine prenatal screening for GBS in our perinatal population.

Background: The model for end-stage liver disease is the best available predictor of waiting list mortality among liver transplant candidates.

Objectives: To validate the applicability of MELD[1] in Israel.

Methods: All candidates awaiting liver transplantation in our institution were followed prospectively since 2002. We measured the concordance (c-statistic) equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in order to assess the predictive power of MELD. Other independent mortality risk factors were identified by a separate multivariate analysis. Mortality rates within different MELD and Child‑Pugh‑Turcotte scores were compared to the original (United States) MELD data.

Results: Of 86 patients listed for transplantation, 40 were transplanted (36 in Israel and 4 abroad). Of the other 46 patients, 24 are alive and still listed, and 22 died (25%, ~7%/year). The area under the ROC[2] curve for MELD score was 0.79 (0.83 USA) compared to a CPT[3] score of 0.71 (O.76 USA). High MELD scores, occurrence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma were independent risk factors of mortality. Death rates per mid MELD score (20–29) were significantly higher than the USA results.

Conclusions: MELD is valid in Israel and superior to CPT in predicting waiting list mortality. Although longer waiting time due to organ scarcity is a key factor, death rates in the mid-range (10–29) MELD groups indicate further audit of the care of patients with end‑stage liver disease.

Objectives: To assess the prevalence of reversible and treatable cardiovascular risk factors among 26’477 healthy Israeli adults: 23’339 men and 3138 women aged 25-55 years.

Methods: We collected data during routine examinations performed as part of a screening program for Israel Defense Force personnel.