Israel Medical Association Journal

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in repeated surges of patients, sometimes challenging triage protocols and appropriate control of patient flow. Available models, such as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), have shown significant limitations. Still, they are used by some centers to triage COVID-19 patients due to the lack of better tools.

Objectives: To establish a practical and automated triage tool based on readily available clinical data to rapidly determine a distinction between patients who are prone to respiratory failure.

Methods: The electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients admitted to the Sheba Medical Center March–April 2020 were analyzed. Population data extraction and exploration were conducted using a MDClone (Israel) big data platform. Patients were divided into three groups: non-intubated, intubated within 24 hours, and intubated after 24 hours. The NEWS and our model where applied to all three groups and a best fit prediction model for the prediction of respiratory failure was established.

Results: The cohort included 385 patients, 42 of whom were eventually intubated, 15 within 24 hours or less. The NEWS score was significantly lower for the non-intubated patients compared to the two other groups. Our improved model, which included NEWS elements combined with other clinical data elements, showed significantly better performance. The model's receiver operating characteristic curve had area under curve (AUC) of 0.92 with of sensitivity 0.81, specificity 0.89, and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.4% compared to AUC of 0.63 with NEWS. As patients deteriorate and require further support with supplemental O₂, the need for re-triage emerges. Our model was able to identify those patients on supplementary O₂ prone to respiratory failure with an AUC of 0.86 sensitivity 0.95, and specificity 0.7 NPV 98.9%, whereas NEWS had an AUC of 0.76. For both groups positive predictive value was approximately 35%.

Conclusions: Our model, based on readily available and simple clinical parameters, showed an excellent ability to predict negative outcome among patients with COVID-19 and therefore might be used as an initial screening tool for patient triage in emergency departments and other COVID-19 specific areas of the hospital.

Background: Guidelines for pandemic preparedness emphasize the role of sentinel and syndromic surveillance in monitoring pandemic spread.

Objectives: To examine advantages and obstacles of utilizing a sentinel influenza surveillance system to monitor community severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) activity based on Israel's experience from mid-March to mid-May 2020.

Methods: Several modifications were applied to the influenza surveillance system. The clinical component relied mainly on pneumonia and upper respiratory infection (URI) consultations with primary care physicians as well as visits to emergency departments (ED) due to pneumonia. The virological data were based on nasopharyngeal swabs obtained from symptomatic patients who visited outpatient clinics.

Results: By week 12 of the pandemic, the crude and age-specific primary physician consultation rates due to URI and pneumonia declined below the expected level, reaching nadir that lasted from week 15 until week 20. Similarly, ED visits due to pneumonia were significantly lower than expected from weeks 14 and 15 to week 20. The virological surveillance started on week 13 with 6/253 of the swabs (2.3%) positive for SARS-CoV-2. There was a peak of 13/225 positive swabs on week 145.8%. During weeks 17–20, none of the swabs (47–97 per week) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. This trend was similar to national data.

Conclusions: The virological component of the surveillance system showed the SARS-CoV-2 community spread, but had low sensitivity when virus activity was low. The clinical component, however, had no yield. Sentinel surveillance can assist in monitoring future novel pandemics and should be augmented in revised preparedness plans.

Background: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are at increased risk for both skin and internal malignancies (IM). The risk of IM after the occurrence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) has been studied in the general population but very little is known about this association in SOTRs.

Objectives: To evaluate the risk of IM following a prior diagnosis of post transplantation NMSC in SOTRs.

Methods: This single center retrospective cohort study included a study population of 329 SOTRs from Rabin Medical Center who had a post-transplant diagnosis of skin malignancy, internal malignancy, or both from 2012 to 2018.

Results: In total, 135 (41.03%) SOTRs were diagnosed with IM without a preceding diagnosis of NMSC while only 42 (12.76%) patients diagnosed with IM had a preceding diagnosis of NMSC. SOTRs with a diagnosis of NMSC showed a significantly decreased risk of developing subsequent IM (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.44–0.94, P = 0.02) compared to those without a prior NMSC diagnosis. Liver and lung transplant patients showed a significantly decreased risk of developing subsequent IM after a diagnosis of NMSC (HR 0.09 and 0.43, respectively). When stratified by type of IM, only patients who were diagnosed with a hematological malignancy had a significantly lower risk of developing this malignancy if they had a prior NMSC (HR 0.26).

Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest a protective effect of NMSC on subsequent IM in the organ transplant population.

Background: Hookah smoking is a common activity around the world and has recently become a trend among youth. Studies have indicated a relationship between hookah smoking and a high prevalence of chronic diseases, cancer, cardiovascular, and infectious diseases. In Israel, there has been a sharp increase in hookah smoking among the Arabs. Most studies have focused mainly on hookah smoking among young people.

Objectives: To examine the association between hookah smoking and socioeconomic characteristics, health status and behaviors, and knowledge in the adult Arab population and to build a prediction model using machine learning methods.

Methods: This quantitative study based is on data from the Health and Environment Survey conducted by the Galilee Society in 2015–2016. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 2046 adults aged 18 years and older.

Results: Using machine learning, a prediction model was built based on eight features. Of the total study population, 13.0% smoked hookah. In the 18–34 age group, 19.5% smoked. Men, people with lower level of health knowledge, heavy consumers of energy drinks and alcohol, and unemployed people were more likely to smoke hookah. Younger and more educated people were more likely to smoke hookah.

Conclusions: Hookah smoking is a widespread behavior among adult Arabs in Israel. The model generated by our study is intended to help health organizations reach people at risk for smoking hookah and to suggest different approaches to eliminate this phenomenon.

Background: No specific clinical or histological factors are recognized to be associated with the development of pericardial effusion in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) other than a metastatic disease.

Objectives: To assess whether specific clinical and histological features are associated with development of pericardial effusion in patients with NSCLC.

Methods: A consecutive cohort of patients with NSCLC who presented with symptomatic pericardial effusion 2014–2017 was compared to a control group of patients with advanced NSCLC without pericardial effusion.

Results: The 27 patients in the effusion group were generally younger, more often female, and with a higher percentage of never-smokers, compared to the 54 patients of the control group. Epidermal growth factor receptor/anaplastic lymphoma kinase (EGFR/ALK) mutation tumors were found in 48% of patients in the effusion group vs. 25% in the control group. In the multivariate analysis, the unadjusted odds ratio (OR) for the development of pericardial effusion in patients with somatic mutations was significantly higher compared to wild type tumors (OR 2.65, 95% confidence interval 1.00–7.00). However, a suspected association between pericardial effusion and mutation status was found to be confounded by age. While a high rate of recurrence was observed when pericardiocentesis was initially performed (9/17, 53%), no recurrence was documented when pericardial window procedure was performed (total of 17 patients).

Conclusions: Patients with EGFR/ALK mutations may be at higher risk for the development of pericardial effusion; therefore, attending physicians need to be aware and have a high index of clinical suspicion

Background: The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score has been shown to predict systemic thromboembolism and mortality in certain groups in sinus rhythm (SR), similar to its predictive value with atrial fibrillation (AF).

Objectives: To compare factors of inflammation, thrombosis, platelet reactivity, and turnover in patients with high versus low CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in SR.

Methods: We enrolled consecutive patients in SR and no history of AF. Blood samples were collected for neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), immature platelet fraction (IPF%) and count (IPC), CD40 ligand, soluble P-selectin (sP-selectin) and E-selectin. IPF was measured by autoanalyzer and the other factors by ELISA.

Results: The study comprised 108 patients (age 58 ± 18 years, 63 women (58%), 28 (26%) with diabetes), In addition, 52 had high CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (³ 2 for male and ³ 3 for female) and 56 had low score. Patients with low scores were younger, with fewer co-morbidities, and smaller left atrial size. sP-selectin was higher in the high CHA₂DS₂-VASc group (45, interquartile ratio [IQR] 36–49) vs. 37 (IQR 28–46) ng/ml, P = 0.041]. Inflammatory markers were also elevated, CRP 3.1 mg/L (IQR 1.7–9.3) vs. 1.6 (IQR 0.78–5.4), P < 0.001; NLR 2.7 (IQR 2.1–3.8) vs. 2.1 (IQR 1.6–2.5), P = 0.001, respectively. There was no difference in E-selectin, CD40 ligand, IPC, or IPF% between the groups.

Conclusions: Patients in SR with high CHA₂DS₂-VASc score have higher inflammatory markers and sP-selectin. These findings may explain the higher rate of adverse cardiovascular events associated with elevated CHA₂DS₂-VASc score.

Advances in Lymphoma management have resulted in significant improvements in patient outcomes over the last 50 years. Despite these developments, cardiotoxicity from lymphoma treatments remains an important cause of mortality and morbidity in this cohort of patients. We outlined the most common cardiotoxicities associated with lymphoma treatments and their respective investigation and management strategies, including the role of cardiac pre-assessment and late effects monitoring.

Increased life expectancy due to improved cancer prognosis, shared determinants (e.g., tobacco use), and cardiovascular toxicities related to cancer therapies, including the adverse cardiometabolic effects of androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer, make cardiovascular disease an frequent and important co-morbidity in patients with a genitourinary malignancy. Complex cardiovascular disease can pose significant challenges in the management of these patients given the uncertainties related to the best approach to reconcile ischemic and bleeding risks, and the role of invasive cardiovascular interventions in individuals with advanced cancer. In this review, we discuss the current evidence that informs decision-making in this clinical context.

Background: Risk factors for severe coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) infection include old age, chronic illness, and neurological conditions. In contrast, high vitamin D levels are known to augment immune activity and to reduce the severity of viral infections. Recently, a possible association between the likelihood of COVID-19 infection, COVID-19 severity, and vitamin D blood levels was reported.

Objective: To assess the possible association between vitamin D long-term supplementation and COVID-19 symptomatic severity and complications of COVID-19 infection in elderly psychiatric inpatients, a high at-risk group.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective case series study. Data of 14 elderly COVID-19 positive inpatients, presenting with dementia or schizophrenia and other medical conditions were extracted from medical records. All patients maintained a 800 IU daily dose of vitamin D prior to the infection.

Results: Most of the inpatients were asymptomatic or presented very few symptoms. No need for intensive care unit intervention or deaths were reported. Cognitive functioning of the patients remained unchanged.

Conclusions: Pre-existing vitamin D supplementation may reinforce immunity and reduce COVID-19 severity in elderly psychiatric inpatients.