Summary

Background: An organ sharing system should achieve fairness and optimal graft longevity. Balancing between social and utilitarian considerations is a sensitive ethical, public and medical issue that requires a means to examine the consequences of any allocation policy or planned changes thereof.

Objective: To evaluate the performance and applicability of a computerized simulation model by examining the impact of two opposing organ allocation policies (social or utilitarian) on predicted organ distribution regarding age, waiting time, recipient sensitization measured by panel reactive antibody level and overall donor-recipient tissue matching (measured by the number of HLA antigen mismatches).

Methods: Using a computerized simulation model, virtual donors and recipients were emulated and organs were allocated according to either social algorithms or utilitarian policies. The resulting number of HLA mismatches, PRA[1], age, and waiting time distributions were compared between allocation strategies.

Results: Simulating allocation of 7,000 organs to 17,000 candidate recipients and implementing social policies yielded donor-recipient compatibility comparable to utilitarian policies (0–1 mm: 19.4% vs. 28%) while allocating 66.7% of organs to long waiters (>48 months).

Conclusion: This computerized simulation model is a valuable tool for decision-makers establishing or modifying organ allocation policies.