Israel Medical Association Journal

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in repeated surges of patients, sometimes challenging triage protocols and appropriate control of patient flow. Available models, such as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), have shown significant limitations. Still, they are used by some centers to triage COVID-19 patients due to the lack of better tools.

Objectives: To establish a practical and automated triage tool based on readily available clinical data to rapidly determine a distinction between patients who are prone to respiratory failure.

Methods: The electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients admitted to the Sheba Medical Center March–April 2020 were analyzed. Population data extraction and exploration were conducted using a MDClone (Israel) big data platform. Patients were divided into three groups: non-intubated, intubated within 24 hours, and intubated after 24 hours. The NEWS and our model where applied to all three groups and a best fit prediction model for the prediction of respiratory failure was established.

Results: The cohort included 385 patients, 42 of whom were eventually intubated, 15 within 24 hours or less. The NEWS score was significantly lower for the non-intubated patients compared to the two other groups. Our improved model, which included NEWS elements combined with other clinical data elements, showed significantly better performance. The model's receiver operating characteristic curve had area under curve (AUC) of 0.92 with of sensitivity 0.81, specificity 0.89, and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.4% compared to AUC of 0.63 with NEWS. As patients deteriorate and require further support with supplemental O₂, the need for re-triage emerges. Our model was able to identify those patients on supplementary O₂ prone to respiratory failure with an AUC of 0.86 sensitivity 0.95, and specificity 0.7 NPV 98.9%, whereas NEWS had an AUC of 0.76. For both groups positive predictive value was approximately 35%.

Conclusions: Our model, based on readily available and simple clinical parameters, showed an excellent ability to predict negative outcome among patients with COVID-19 and therefore might be used as an initial screening tool for patient triage in emergency departments and other COVID-19 specific areas of the hospital.

Background: Anastomotic leakage (AL) is a major complication following colorectal surgery, with many risk factors established to date. The incidence of AL varies in the medical literature and is dependent on research inclusion criteria and diagnostic criteria.

Objectives: To determine the incidence of and the potential risk factors for AL following colorectal surgery at a single academic medical center.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all operative reports of colorectal procedures that included bowel resection and primary bowel anastomosis performed at Sheba Medical Center during 2012. AL was defined according to the 1991 United Kingdom Surgical Infection Study Group criteria. Data were assessed for leak incidence within 30 days. In addition, 17 possible risk factors for leakage were analyzed. A literature review was conducted.

Results: This cohort study comprised 260 patients, and included 261 procedures performed during the study period. The overall leak rate was 8.4%. In a univariate analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR] 3.37, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.21–9.43), pulmonary disease (OR 3.99, 95%CI 1.49–10.73), current or past smoking (OR 2.93, 95%CI 1.21–7.10), and American Society of Anesthesiologist score ≥ 3 (OR 3.08, 95%CI 1.16–8.13) were associated with an increased risk for anastomotic leakage. In a multivariate analysis, male gender (OR 3.62, 95%CI 1.27–10.33) and pulmonary disease (OR 4.37, 95%CI 1.58–12.10) were associated with a greater risk.

Conclusions: The incidence of AL in the present study is similar to that found in comparable series. Respiratory co-morbidity and male sex were found to be the most significant risk factors.

Background: Adverse drug events (ADEs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Hence, identifying and monitoring ADEs is of utmost importance. The Trigger Tool introduced by the Institute of Healthcare Improvement in the United States has been used in various countries worldwide, but has yet to be validated in Israel.

Objective: To validate the international Trigger Tool in Israel and to compare the results with those generated in various countries.

Methods: A retrospective descriptive correlative analysis surveying four general hospitals in Israel from different geographical regions was conducted. Patient medical charts (n=960) were screened for 17 established triggers and confirmed for the presence of an ADE. Trigger incidence was compared to the actual ADE rate. Further comparison among countries was conducted using published literature describing Trigger Tool validation in various countries.

Results: A total of 421 triggers in 279 hospitalizations were identified, of which 75 ADEs in 72 hospitalizations (7.5%) were confirmed. In addition, two ADEs were identified by chart review only. Mean positive predictive value was 17.81% and overall sensitivity was 97%. We found 1.54 ADEs for every 100 hospitalization days, 7.8 ADEs per 100 admissions, and 1.81 ADEs for every 1000 doses of medication. Of the 77 ADEs identified, 22.7% were defined as preventable.

Conclusions: Our results support the Trigger Tool validity in Israel as a standardized method. Further studies should evaluate between hospital and region differences in ADE rate, in particular for the preventable events.

Response to the authors of the open letter to the people in Gaza.

Background: Coronary slow flow phenomenon (CSFP) is a functional and structural disease that is diagnosed by coronary angiogram.    



Objectives: To evaluate the possible association between CSFP and small artery elasticity in an effort to understand the pathogenesis of CSFP.

Methods: The study population comprised 12 patients with normal coronary arteries and CSFP and 12 with normal coronary arteries without CSFP. We measured conjugated diene formation at 234 nm during low density lipoprotein (LDL) oxidation, as well as platelet aggregation. We estimated, non-invasively, arterial elasticity parameters. Mann-Whitney non-parametric test was used to compare differences between the groups. Data are presented as mean ± standard deviation.

Results: Waist circumference was 99.2 ± 8.8 cm and 114.9 ± 10.5 cm in the normal flow and CSFP groups, respectively (P = 0.003). Four patients in the CSFP group and 1 in the normal flow group had type 2 diabetes. Area under the curve in the oral glucose tolerance test was 22% higher in the CSFP than in the normal group (P = 0.04). There was no difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, plasma concentrations of total cholesterol, triglycerides, high density lipoprotein, LDL and platelet aggregation parameters between the groups. Lag time required until initiation of LDL oxidation in the presence of CuSO₄ was 17% longer (P = 0.02) and homocysteine fasting plasma concentration was 81% lower (P = 0.05) in the normal flow group. Large artery elasticity was the same in both groups. Small artery elasticity was 5 ± 1.5 ml/mmHgx100 in normal flow subjects and 6.1 ± 1.9 ml/mmHgx100 in the CSFP patients (P = 0.02).

Conclusions: Patients with CSFP had more metabolic derangements. Arterial stiffness was not increased in CSFP.

Background: A survey conducted among Israel Defense Force primary care physicians in 2001 revealed that they consider patients' needs more than they do organizational needs and that the education PCPs[1] currently receive is inadequate. In 2003 the medical corps initiated a multi-format continuous medical education program aimed at improving skills in primary care medicine.

Objectives: To measure and analyze the effect of the tailored-made CME[2] program on PCPs’ self-perception 3 years after its implementation and correlate it to clinical performance.

Methods: In 2006 a questionnaire was delivered to a representative sample of PCPs in the IDF[3]. The questionnaire included items on demographic and professional background, statements on self-perception issues, and ranking of roles. We compared the follow-up survey (2006) to the results of the original study (2001) and correlated the survey results with clinical performance as measured through objective indicators.

Results: In the 2006 follow-up survey PCPs scored higher on questions dealing with their perception of themselves as case managers (3.8 compared to 4.0 on the 2001 survey on a 5 point scale, P = 0.046), perceived quality of care and education (3.5 vs. 3.8, P = 0.06), and on questions dealing with organizational commitment (3.5 vs. 3.8, P=0.01). PCPs received higher scores on clinical indicators in the later study (odds ratio 2.05, P < 0.001).

Conclusions: PCPs in the IDF perceive themselves more as case managers as compared to the 2001 survey. A tailor-made CME program may have contributed to the improvement in skills and quality of care.

Background: Despite improved management of heart failure patients, their prognosis remains poor.

Objectives: To characterize hospitalized HF[1] patients and to identify factors that may affect their short and long-term outcome in a national prospective survey.

Methods: We recorded stages B-D according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association definition of HF patients hospitalized in internal medicine and cardiology departments in all 25 public hospitals in Israel.

Results: During March-April 2003, 4102 consecutive patients were recorded. Their mean age was 73 ± 12 years and 57% were males; 75.3% were hypertensive, 50% diabetic and 59% dyslipidemic; 82% had coronary artery disease, 33% atrial fibrillation, 41% renal failure (creatinine ³ 1.5 mg/dl), and 49% anemia (hemoglobin £ 12 g/dl). Mortality rates were 4.7% in-hospital, 7.6% at 30 days, 18.7% at 6 months and 28.1% at 12 months. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that increased 1 year mortality rate was associated with New York Heart Association III–IV (odds ratio 2.07, 95% confidence interval 1.78–2.41), age (for 10 year increment) (OR[2] 1.41, 95% CI[3] 1.31–1.52), renal failure (1.79, 1.53–2.09), anemia (1.50, 1.29–1.75), stroke (1.50, 1.21–1.85), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.25, 1.04–1.50) and atrial fibrillation (1.20, 1.02–1.40).

Conclusions: This nationwide heart failure survey indicates a high risk of long-term mortality and the urgent need for the development of more effective management strategies for patients with heart failure discharged from hospitals.

Background: Heart failure with preserved systolic left ventricular function is a major cause of cardiac disability.

Objectives: To examine the prevalence, characteristics and late clinical outcome of patients hospitalized with HF-PSF[1] on a nationwide basis in Israel.

Methods: The Israel nationwide HF survey examined prospectively 4102 consecutive HF patients admitted to 93 internal medicine and 24 cardiology departments in all 25 public hospitals in the country. Echocardiographic LV function measurements were available in 2845 patients (69%). The present report relates to the 1364 patients who had HF-PSF (LV ejection fraction ≥ 40%).

Results: Mortality of HF-PSF patients was high (in-hospital 3.5%, 6 months 14.2%, 12 months 22.0%), but lower than in patients with reduced systolic function (all P < 0.01). Mortality was higher in patients with HF as the primary hospitalization diagnosis (16.0% vs. 12.5% at 6 months, P = 0.07 and 26.2% vs. 18.0% at 12 months, P = 0.0002). Patients with HF-PSF who died were older (78 ± 10 vs. 71 ± 12 years, P < 0.001), more often female (P = 0.05) and had atrial fibrillation more frequently (44% vs. 33%, P < 0.01). There was also a relationship between mortality and pharmacotherapy: after adjustment for age and co-morbid conditions, mortality was lower in patients treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (P = 0.0003) and angiotensin receptor blockers (P = 0.002) and higher in those receiving digoxin (P = 0.003) and diuretic therapy (P = 0.009).

Conclusions: This nationwide survey highlights the very high late mortality rates in patients hospitalized for HF without a decrease in systolic function. The findings mandate a focus on better evidence-based treatment strategies to improve outcome in HF-PSF patients.

Background: Despite significant advances in the therapy of heart failure, many patients still do not receive optimal treatment.

Objectives: To document the standard of care that patients hospitalized with HF[1] in Israel received during a 2 month period.

Methods: The Heart Failure Survey in Israel 2003 was a prospective 2 month survey of patients admitted to all 25 public hospitals in Israel with a diagnosis of HF.

Results: The mean age of the 4102 patients was 73 years and 43% were female. The use of angiotensin-converting enzyme/angiotensin receptor blockers and beta blockers both declined from NYHA class I to IV (68.8% to 50.6% for ACE[2]-inhibitor/ARB[3] and 64.1% to 52.9% for beta blockers, P < 0.001 for comparisons). The percentage of patients by NYHA class taking an ACE-inhibitor or ARB and a beta blocker at hospital discharge also declined from NYHA class I to IV (47.5% to 28.8%, P < 0.002 for comparisons). The strongest predictor of being discharged with an ACE-inhibitor or ARB was the use of these medications at hospital admission. Negative predictors for their usage were age, creatinine, disease severity class, and functional status.

Conclusions: Despite the dissemination of guidelines many patients did not receive optimal care for HF. Reasons for this discrepancy need to be identified and modified.