IRON SWORDS
IMAJ | volume 26
Journal 3, March 2024
pages: 141-142
A Statistical Approach to the High Mortality Rate of Israeli Citizens Held Hostage in Gaza
1 Deputy Director Office, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel
2 Department of Pediatrics, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, affiliated with the Hadassah–Hebrew University School of Medicine, Jerusalem, Israel
3 Leumit Health Services and Research Institute, Tel Aviv, Israel
4 Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Summary
Background:
According to Hamas sources, many Israeli hostages in Gaza were killed by indiscriminate Israeli airstrikes, together with a large number of Palestinian citizens.
Objectives:
To verify whether the estimated death rate of Israeli hostages was similar to the estimated death rate of Gaza citizens from these acts of war.
Methods:
We used two estimates of hostage death rates, one obtained from Israeli intelligence sources, and one published by a Hamas spokesperson. We used the Palestinian casualty rates published by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. We compared death rates using Fisher's exact test.
Results:
By 30 December 2023, the rate of Israeli hostage death was 23/238 (9.7%) according to Israeli intelligence sources, and 60/238 (25.2%) according to Hamas. Both figures are strikingly and significantly higher than the death rate among Palestinians, estimated to be 19,667/2.2 million (0.89%) by 19 December 2023 (
P < 0.0001).
Conclusions:
Israeli airstrikes as the cause of death of Israeli hostages are implausible unless they were specifically exposed to these strikes more than Palestinian citizens.